Finally, we have our fourth and final 2nd round matchup, Montreal and Winnipeg. Probably the least predicted 2nd round matchup, but here we are. Either way, I think that this will be a great series. Not only are both teams coming in hot, but they each knocked out the Art Ross and Maurice Richard winner. There’s some star power on either side, and this could be one of the best goalie battles we have seen in the playoffs since LA vs Vegas in 2018.
Mark Scheifele will have a tall task ahead of him in this series. He was able to put up 5 points against the Oilers’ shaky defence, but now he is more than likely going to match up against Phillip Danault, who just shut down Matthews to the point where he only got 1 goal in 7 Games. If Scheifele can somehow figure out how to get past Danault, then Montreal is going to have to have Carey Price play on the top of his game. Josh Morrissey had a really good series against Edmonton, but I’m still not confident in him here. He didn’t have a great regular season, and something about the way the Habs play offence tells me that he may struggle to defend the speedier players on Montreal. Andrew Copp had a great series against Edmonton. Paul Maurice played his line against the McDavid line and they did a fantastic job to shut down the Art Ross winner. Montreal is going to have a very hard time scoring when these guys are on the ice. To stack more on top, Hellebuyck is in the net. Arguably the best goalie in the NHL. Jack Campbell played well against the Habs, so imagine what Hellebuyck can do if he’s on his game.
Tyler Toffoli had a solid series against Toronto. In my eyes, he’ll have to play more as he did in the regular season here, as Montreal will need every single goal they can get past Hellebuyck. I think this is going to be a very low-scoring series. Jeff Petry was solid in his own end in this series. Normally he’s a very good offensive defenceman who is shaky in his own end, but he adjusted the game for the Leafs in the Habs last series. Phillip Danault completely shut down the Hyman-Matthews-Marner line. He may have only had 1 secondary assist on an empty-net goal, but he is one of, if not the best defensive forwards in the NHL. He’s going to have to play like that against the likes of Scheifele, Ehlers, Connor, and Wheeler. It’s not an easy task, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do it whatsoever. Carey Price is going to have to have a stellar series. He was great against Toronto, but he’s going to have to be even better against Winnipeg. He’s going to have to match Hellebuycks' play if Montreal wants a chance in this series.
You have to take into account that the Canadiens went 7 with Toronto, but these numbers still heavily favour the Jets. You can’t forget that they swept Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Leafs' powerplay was absolutely horrendous, so I’m not giving the Canadiens penalty kill too much credit for that. The Jets were able to shut down the Oilers' powerplay to below 20%, so imagine what they’ll be able to do against Montreal? I have a feeling that each of these shots numbers from the first round will even out at around the low 30’s each, and that certainly benefits Winnipeg more if Hellebuyck plays as he did in the first round. This series will be determined by the netminders, the Jets star power and Phillip Danault.
Looking at the rosters, I don’t think it’s very surprising. The Jets have the much better forward core overall. Gallagher had a very bad series against Toronto, so if he doesn’t perform here I don’t think Montreal has any hope to get to the third round. If Danault can shut down the Jets' top line, they still have to deal with Dubois, Stastny, and Ehlers on the Jets' second line. That isn’t an easy task, and all 6 defencemen on the Canadiens are going to have to step up to shut them down. Speaking of the defenceman, I think it’s fairly even. You have Pionk, Morrissey, and Demelo up against Petry, Weber, and Chiarot. It’s fairly even and neither of these teams have fantastic bluelines. I expect a lot of scoring in this series if either netminder underperforms whatsoever. If Carey Price takes another step up against Winnipeg I’d say the goaltenders are even, but I really can’t give anyone the edge over Hellebuyck right now. I’m going to go with Winnipeg in 6, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s less than that.