The Seattle Kraken: 7 Teams That are in Trouble Heading into The July 21st Expansion Draft
In 2017, the Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Draft was held. After their team was selected, most people thought it was a really bad roster, and that they would tank for a bit before getting good. Well, Vegas made it to the Stanley Cup Final that season. I don’t see that as the bar for Seattle, but if you go into the 2021–2022 season thinking that they will be a tanking team right from the get-go, you’re making the same mistake that I, as well as many others made in 2017.
Vegas made plenty of trades that day. Whether that would be for draft picks or other players, they chose some players that ended up giving them more assets than if they just picked the player they originally wanted. For example, the trade they made with Minnesota. They didn’t want to lose Matt Dumba, so they traded Alex Tuch to Vegas to pick Erik Haula instead. That didn’t work out too great for the Wild.
The Kraken has the same Expansion Draft rules that the Golden Knights had, including the fact that they’re only drafting from 30 teams. Vegas is exempt from the Expansion Draft. In a flat cap world, a lot of teams have even more bad contracts they want to lose compared to 2017’s expansion draft, so I expect a lot of trades to still happen this year. I’ll be doing a mock expansion draft closer to the date, as we will know more about the team's locked rosters and current situations by that time. So, let’s get straight into it.
#7: The St. Louis Blues
The Blues are currently fighting for the 4th playoff spot in the Honda West Division. St. Louis has more worries on the way when it comes to the expansion draft. They will have to leave one of Parayko, Krug, Faulk, or Dunn left unprotected. Faulk is the likely choice here, and I don’t think they will lose him because of his huge contract. Ville Husso is also a younger netminder that may be selected by the Kraken, but his lacklustre play this season may deter them. However, young forwards like Blais, Sundqvist and Barbashev will more than likely all be left unprotected. One of them will be taken unless St. Louis makes a trade. It definitely hurts to lose a young guy as a team that is on the downswing, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world. There’s a reason why St. Louis is only #7.
#6: The Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs are in a bit of an interesting situation. Considering their main thing is how good they are offensively, their current risk for the expansion draft is surprisingly their blue line. They’re going to be fine in the net if they protect Campbell because Andersen’s UFA status probably won’t interest the Kraken. Toronto has a lot of UFAs coming up the offseason when it comes to their forwards, which gives them more flexibility. They have Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie, and Holl on their blue line. They’ll more than likely lose one of them, and my bet is on them losing Justin Holl. However, they could shock everyone and do 4 forwards and 4 defensemen because of their UFAs upfront. I don’t think they will, but it’s something to think about.
#5: The Tampa Bay Lightning
How do they get away with it? I don’t know, but it still isn’t great for the Lightning. Tampa is perfectly fine when it comes to their netminders, and honestly, their forwards aren’t in a bad spot either. Johnson and Joseph are the real causes for concern here. They’ve tried to lose Johnson before, and Joseph doesn’t fit their current timeline. Tampa Bay’s blueline of Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev, and Cernak is the tough part here. They also have Cal Foote available, so I wouldn’t be surprised if McDonagh or Foote is taken. McDonagh’s contract is huge, and that may actually help Tampa in the long run if he is selected. Certainly not right now, however. I say Seattle takes Foote, which I’m sure Tampa Bay isn’t going to be too bothered with as they’re in win-now mode, but it will sting in the future.
#4: The Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are a team with a lot of talent, and losing one of their core players is almost a guarantee. First up, DeSmith is having a great season this year as Jarry’s backup. I don’t think he’ll be picked but you never know. Pettersson will probably be left unprotected because of his contract, but I don’t think he gets picked either. The Penguins have 10 very good forwards that they would love to keep, but it’ll more than likely be one of them that gets taken. After the guarantees, they have 2 spots for Zucker, Kapanen, Tanev, Blueger, and Aston-Reese. That’s tough, and I don’t think they get through this without a trade. As much as I love Zucker, he doesn’t necessarily have a fit right now, and with his big contract, I can see the Penguins trading Seattle a pick to take him. I would rather it be Pettersson, but either way, they’re losing a great player here.
#3: The Minnesota Wild
This one is a little bit more complicated. Minnesota has had a fantastic season so far, and with the help of Kaprizov, they have become a more popular team overall. But, they do have one huge problem with this expansion draft, and that’s on the blue line. They are set in net, they are set upfront, but there’s one big boulder in the way of them protecting their defenceman. They have 4 guys, Spurgeon, Brodin, Dumba, and Suter. Suter is still a fantastic NHL defenceman, but he is the obvious choice to leave unprotected. He’s older and has a bigger contract than the other three, and he is the least likely to be selected by Seattle. Wait, why are they #3 again? Suter has a No Movement Clause? If the Wild can get him to waive that NMC heading into the expansion draft that’d be perfect for them, but if not they can say bye to Matt Dumba unless they make a trade to keep him as they did in 2017, and we saw how that worked for them then.
#2: The Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is in the same spot as most teams. Their defence. It just so happens that they have more to worry about. Goaltending, like most teams, is fine. Forward-wise they’re also in a pretty good spot. Defensively they have Dougie Hamilton, who is a UFA but I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle still took a shot at him if he isn’t protected. They also have Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, and Bean on the blue line. I think they have to protect Slavin and Pesce here, and Bean is a very valuable young player. I think they bank on the fact that Seattle avoids UFAs, but I’m not sure if that will happen. I think they’ll have to give up a nice haul to make sure they keep Hamilton and Bean.
#1: The Colorado Avalanche
You just read me explaining why this expansion draft was going to be complicated for the Wild. It’s pretty similar for the Avalanche, except it’s worse. They’ll be fine in goal, and when it comes to their forwards, the only real risk is Tyson Jost, who looks like he may only ever become a good 3rd line centre at this point in his career, and that’s still a maybe. Defensively they have Makar, Girard, Toews, and Graves. They would have to choose one of those 4 to not protect, which is already tough. However, for some reason Erik Johnson has a No Movement Clause. So they either have to beg him to waive that NMC or they have to buy him out. They can’t risk losing Makar, Girard, or Toews. I would say that Sakic would try to make a trade to keep Graves, but I’m not sure what he could do that Seattle would see as a worthwhile package. That plus the Johnson contract really puts Colorado in a bad spot here.