After Pittsburgh's disappointing First Round loss against the New York Islanders this past season, Ron Hextall and the Penguins have a lot on their plate this offseason. Malkin, Letang, Rust, Kapanen, McCann, and Carter’s contracts are all up after this coming season, so Hextall has a clear plan in mind. The Penguins will have the most cap space they’ve had in a long time in that 2022 offseason, and I believe that it will be split up between the veterans and younger players. I can’t imagine the Penguins management would ever want to let Malkin or Letang walk, and they’ll certainly sign to less money than they earn right now. Rust, Kapanen, and McCann will all need bigger paychecks, although I don’t think it’s going to be as big of an increase as others do. Either way, the 2021–2022 season is probably the best chance this Penguins core will have at the cup for the rest of their time together. So, let’s answer some of those big questions.
The Seattle Kraken will be taking a Pittsburgh Penguin this offseason, whether they like it or not. The Penguins will be one of the more affected teams by this process, and I think I can guess who will end up in a Kraken jersey by next season. First off, what would my protected list look like?
Despite the Penguins being in a sticky situation, their protection process is very easy. You have 6 forwards in Sid, Geno, Jake, Rust, Kappy, and McCann. The hard part is the Pens’ 7th forward. Jeff Carter showed up and played some unreal hockey for the Penguins, and you have to have him come back as the third-line center next season. The problem here is that Teddy Blueger is the guy that’s supposed to come in as the third-line centre once Jeff Carter retires or leaves the Penguins, likely in the 2022 offseason. Teddy Blueger is possibly the best 4th line center in the NHL, and he’s a fairly decent 3rd liner right now at the age of 26, compared to the 36-year-old Carter. I’d love to keep both, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. the Penguins are going to do a coin flip to determine who they protect, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up choosing Blueger.
The defenceman is the easiest part here. First off, Letang and Dumoulin are must protect players. the Penguins’ top pairing played elite hockey together this season, and there is no way either of them should be left up for grabs. Since Marino isn’t eligible for the expansion draft, the Penguins don’t have to worry about protecting him. That leaves a choice between Pettersson and Matheson, and Pettersson is the obvious choice. As much as I didn’t exactly like how he played this season, he was better than Matheson for the majority of the year. Then, the goalies. As much as my heart got ripped into threads watching how Jarry played in Pittsburgh's series against the Islanders, I think he still has some promise in his career. He doesn’t have a bad contract at all, but I think Casey DeSmith looks like the better pick for Seattle. He had a better overall season than Jarry, and how Jarry played in the playoffs will probably push Seattle away. Also, if the Penguins get out of that $3,500,000 contract, that will give them a go-ahead to sign a different goalie in free agency. I can see them protecting Jarry, but I’m not sure that it’ll be the safest move. DeSmiths cheap contract will probably be very attractive for the Kraken.
Now we get to the tough question, who do I think Seattle will take? I think Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese are the two most likely players to be taken. If Hextall wants to offer Francis a sweetener to take Zucker I wouldn’t be surprised, but I still have hope for Zucker to bounce back next season. I think it’ll be Blueger if they protect Carter, and it’ll be ZAR if they protect Blueger. but there’s always a chance they go for Carter, and I don’t think that the Penguins want there to be a chance for that to happen. My guess is that Teddy Blueger will be in a Kraken jersey by the start of next season.
The Penguins' first draft pick this season will be their 2nd rounder, and things don’t look much better after that. This is because their first this season was dealt in the Jason Zucker, a trade I would do again in a heartbeat. Pittsburgh's 3rd rounder this season was dealt at the trade deadline for Marleau in the 2019–2020 season, a trade that Penguins fans probably don’t want to remember. Pittsburgh's 4th was dealt to Arizona in the Phil Kessel trade. Their 6th was dealt to Edmonton for John Marino, which may end up being one of the most one-sided trades in NHL history if Marino blossoms into the player I think he will. The Penguins have their own 5th, as well as Washingtons, Minnesotas, and their own 7th round pick.
Ron Hextall has to use all of these picks, especially in one of, if not the most uncertain draft in NHL history. I’m not going to try to predict who the Penguins take with these later picks, but a name to keep an eye on is Justin Robidas. He played for the Val-d’Or Foreurs alongside two of the top Penguins prospects, Sam Poulin and Nathan Legare. I think there’s a chance for him to become a solid middle 6 center. But, I do really trust this team's scouting talent, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the 5th or one of the 7ths turns into a valuable piece for this team.
Heading into free agency, the Penguins will have some contracts to hand out and move. Pittsburgh currently has ~$3,200,000 available in cap space, and if they want to make any improvements to this roster they’ll have to make a deal. That’s where this deal comes in.
I think we’ve seen enough of Matheson in Pittsburgh. Was he bad? No, I wouldn’t say that. He was a very average defenceman this past season, which was better than he had played in Florida. My big problem with Matheson is his $4,875,000 AAV contract over the next 5 seasons. That’s way too much for Matheson, and I don’t want that contract on my team. His 16 points in 44 games this season on 18:38 a game may entice some younger teams with cap space to add him for a playoff push, or maybe to get to the next level. Let me explain why I believe that each of these 4 teams makes sense for a Matheson deal.
Boston has ~$30,000,000 in cap space this offseason, but they do have some big names to resign. Hall, Krejci, Rask, Carlo, and possibly Mike Reilly. I would say that they would take up around $23,000,000, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike Reilly decides to walk. If he does, bringing in Mike Matheson wouldn’t be the worst idea for the Bruins. I think that this is the least likely of the 4 teams, but it’s something that I would keep in mind.
Buffalo is the next team. The Sabres have ~$34,000,000 in cap space, with about $10-$12 million probably going towards Sam Reinhart (if he resigns) and Rasmus Dahlin, the Sabres have a lot of room to work with. If Jack Eichel doesn’t get traded before next season, I can see Buffalos front office deciding to make a push for the playoffs next year. So why not take a shot at Mike Matheson? The only reason I don’t see this as being very likely is because the odds of Eichel staying put in Buffalo are probably slim to none.
Ottawa, good ol Ottawa. Before the 2021 season, Eugene Melnyk said “I truly believe that we are a Stanley Cup winner within four years”. If Melnyk is still confident about this, adding a 27-year-old defenceman who is already locked up for the next 5 seasons might help out a bit. I don’t think it would be a good deal for the Senators, but I can totally see them doing something stupid like this.
Edmonton is my most likely destination. There are currently rumours surrounding Duncan Keith being moved out of Chicago, and it looks like the Oilers are the most likely spot for the veteran to land. If they do get Keith, I don’t see this deal happening. But if they miss out on him, Matheson is a better deal for Edmonton anyways. He’s a better, younger player that more fits the timeline of the Oilers. I think that he’ll be a very solid, probably cheaper scoring option from the blueline compared to Tyson Barrie. He’ll score a hell of a lot of points, and he’s much better in his own end compared to Barrie. I like this deal for the Oilers.
I would try to trade Matheson for some late-ish future picks, probably a 3rdor a 4th and Caleb Jones. I think the deal to the Oilers makes the most sense, so we’ll run with that for the rest of the offseason. This leaves the Penguins with ~$8,000,000 in cap space, so let’s look at the contracts I would sign.
Before we go over who I’m not bringing back, let’s look at who I would bring back. I have a feeling that Hextall might decide to sign everybody to a 1 year deal this offseason to give the Penguins as much flexibility as possibly in the 2022 offseason. But, this is what I would do.
Frederick Gaudreau proved himself as a very good bottom 6 player in his stint with the Penguins late last season and into the playoffs, and I see him as the guy to come in as the Penguins' 4th line center to replace Blueger. Radim Zohorna has a lot of promise as a center or winger in this league, and I think signing him now for 2/3 years is the smartest thing to do for the Penguins. Cody Ceci showed that he is a very good defenceman if you shelter his minutes, and I think that he can be a serviceable defenceman on the third pairing for the Penguins for the next couple of years. However, that is the contract I can see Hextall only wanting to sign for 1 year, which will probably mean a higher AAV. Zach Aston-Reese is arguably the best defensive winger in the NHL, and he needs to stay on the Penguins for as long as they're a contending team. Another player that isn’t on the graphic is Evan Rodrigues. If the Penguins can sign him to anything less than $1,000,000 x 1 then I’m up for it.
With that, there are some players that I would say goodbye to. Mark Jankowski was not good at all as the Penguins' 4th line center this season, and because of that, I would not give him a qualifying offer heading into free agency. If you get him for $750,000 x 1 it’s whatever, but with an arbitrator involved I don’t want to risk giving him much more than that. I’d also be letting go of Colton Sceviour, who I also think can fit for a very cheap contract, something like 1 x $900,000, I just don’t see how he’ll get into the lineup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sign to a team that has had better results over the past 2 or 3 seasons.
Free agency is the next step here. On July 1st, I would explore my options around the league for a 3rd line RW who I think would fit with Carter and McCann. A fast power forward/playmaker who doesn’t mind getting into battles in front of the net. I have a couple of guys in mind, but I think the most budget, and possibly best option is…….
Joel Armia. A 6'4" power forward who had a solid season for the Canadiens and had an excellent playoff run with Montreal to the Stanley Cup Final. He’s a solid penalty killer who has shown that he can shoot the puck. He isn’t the best playmaker but McCann has proven that he can play that role at 5-on-5. Blake Coleman would be my first choice, but he’s more than likely going to be too expensive for the Penguins. Rikard Rakell is a guy I’ve been wanting to be in Pittsburgh for the past two seasons, but I don’t think that the Penguins will be willing to give up what Anaheim wants from him. I think a $3,500,000 x 1 contract makes the most sense for the Penguins, and I think that that’s a good price point for Armia. I’d be willing to go up to $4,000,000, but no higher than that. Only for one season as well, which may not be easy to get Armia to sign for that short of a term.
Along with the Armia signing, I’d also deal Riikola to a team that needs some help defensively for a 4th. He’s a fantastic defenceman, but it doesn’t look like there’s much room for him on this roster. That frees up an extra $1,150,000, which would leave the Penguins with little to no cap space after the Armia signing before the price drop-off for guys like Zohorna and Caleb Jones, who may make less in the AHL. The only problem with this is that it doesn’t leave the Penguins with very much depth, which is why I don’t see this move happening. As much as I’d love Armia, I don’t see how the money works. Unless Seattle picks Zucker in the expansion draft and the Penguins still trade Matheson.
We’ll have to wait and see, but this was just a fun article of speculation to get my thoughts across. On July 18th every team's protected list for the expansion draft will be released, and that’s when I’m going to make my Seattle Kraken roster prediction.