With Jordan Binnington's new contract extension being 6 x 6, it’s time for the conversation of why Goalies are getting contracts this big as of late.
When it comes to Jordan Binnington, let’s first discuss how he got here.
In the 2018–2019 season, the rookie netminder player 32 games, posting a very impressive 24–5–1 record with a 0.927 Save% and a 1.89 GAA. People always talk about how good Binnington was that year in the playoffs, but he had an even better regular season.
After 26 gruelling playoff games, Binnington backstopped the St. Louis Blues to their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. In those 26 games, Binnington had a 0.914 Save% and a 2.46 GAA, with 3 Shutouts. He was in Conn Smythe talks, but it ultimately went to Ryan O'Reilly.
There was only one reason why people weren’t freaking out about Binnington doing this is his rookie season. That’s because another goalie did it 3 years ago, twice.
In the 2019–2020 season, the Blues rode Binnington out as the Blues full-time starter, playing 50 of the teams 71 games in the shortened season. He had a 30–13–7 record, with a 0.912 Save% and a 2.56 GAA, with 3 Shutouts. The St. Louis Blues were expected to continue to be Stanley Cup Contenders when the playoffs began.
In Game 1, Binnington played awful, and the Blues lost. In Game 2, Binnington played awful, and the Blues lost. In Game 3, the Blues started Jake Allen. They won. Same for Game 4. When the Blues lost Game 5, they went back to Binnington for Game 6. He was embarrassed by Vancouver, and the Blues pulled him halfway through the 2nd period. St. Louis lost the series 4–2.
A 0.800 Save% and an 0–3–0 record during this series doesn’t help his case. People said that it was just because of the bubble, and he’d be back to form next season.
So far this season Binnington, has played 20 games, had a 9–6–4 record, with a 0.906 Save% and a 2.81 GAA. So they gave him a huge 6 year, 36 million dollar contract extension on Thursday, March 11th.
I understand that he helped win this team a Stanley Cup, but he isn’t exactly young. He’s 27 years old, and he’ll be 28 once this extension kicks in and 34 when it ends. He’s been on the decline since his rookie season, and advanced stats support that, especially for this season.
This reminds me of that other netminder I brought up earlier. The one who won 2 Stanley Cups as a rookie. Matt Murray has sadly been one of the worst goalies in the NHL so far this season. As a huge fan of his with his jersey hanging on the wall next to me, it’s very surprising to see how his career has gone. He was a player who played fantastic on his way to a Stanley Cup when he was 22 and playing even better to win another one when he was 23. He had such high expectations from fans around the NHL, and he just never met them.
He had a lot of injury troubles, and having a disappointing season last year in Pittsburgh and with them having an up-and-coming goalie in Tristan Jarry, Murray’s job was on the line. He was 26 now, and if anything he had gotten worse. Both netminders needed a new contract, and Murray was asking for too much from the Penguins. So, they made the right choice, sending Murray to the Senators. What kind of contract do you think he got?
4 Years. 6.25 million AAV. 25 million dollars. For a goaltender that didn’t even have a 0.900 Save% the season prior in front of a talented Penguins team.
He’s had a 7–12–1 record, a 0.880 Save%, and a 3.84 GAA so far in Ottawa. The worst part is, is that I think Murray’s contract is better than Binningtons, and here’s why.
Murray came into the NHL at age 22, winning 2 Stanley Cups while he was still considered a rookie, and playing fantastic in the playoffs and the regular season during that time. Then Fleury left. Then his numbers dropped, then they picked up again, and now they are on a sharp decline.
Binnington came into the NHL at age 25, winning 1 Stanley Cup as a rookie, and playing fantastic in the playoffs and the regular season. His numbers started to slowly decline, until his 2nd time in the playoffs where they fell off of a cliff. Then Jake Allen left. Then his numbers dropped from where they were in the prior season.
So, what’s the difference here? Both winning rings as rookies, playing great overall, slowly dropping off and in the case of Murray, driving off the cliff after going to Ottawa. The difference is that Matt Murray is 3 years younger, played really well for longer than Binnington so far, and has a shorter contract. They’re both bad contracts. But one of them is slightly better, and I still believe that Murray has a chance to come back to be a solid starter. So does Binnington, but his contract ends at age 34, Murrays ends at age 30. The Blues are contending. Ottawa is not. Binningtons is much more of a risk than Murray's is.
So, why are goalies getting these large contracts? Goalies are extremely valuable, and one of the most important aspects of a successful team. But there’s only an 81.5 million dollar cap ceiling right now, and it’s going to stay like that for a while. Some teams understand this and aren’t paying goalies for what they were, or what they’re projected to be. They’re paying them for what they are, and aren’t making the mistake of giving them a long term.
The best example of this is Carey Price. He was given an 8 Year, 84 million dollar deal on July 2nd, 2017. He was their franchise player at that point and was the Hart Trophy winner in 2015. If the Canadiens wanted to win, they had to keep Carey Price. The price, no pun intended, is fine for how he was playing then. Today it looks awful, but it wouldn’t look as bad if it wasn’t for 8 years. Price was 31 years old when this contract kicked in, and I’m sure he still would’ve stayed on the Habs if it was a 4-year contract instead of an 8 year one. Instead, the netminder is in the 3rd year of this deal and is looking like a shell of what he used to be. He hasn’t even been the best goalie on the Canadiens this season. He turned it up in the playoffs last year, but if he keeps this up during the regular season his playoff performance won’t be too far from dropping off.
Look at the top 5 goalies, in my opinion, in the NHL right now. John Gibson, Connor Hellebuyck, Tuuka Rask, Andrei Vasilievskiy, and Ben Bishop.
Tuukka Rask was signed to an 8 Year, 56 million dollar contract with an AAV of 7 million in July 2013. He was signed to this contract after his amazing performance during the regular season and the playoffs for the Bruins. This was when Rask was 26, and he had just spent 3 seasons as a fantastic backup for Boston. He showed he could be a starter in 2013 when he made the Stanley Cup Finals, and Boston paid him like it. It was a risky contract, but it obviously worked out for them, as he is still one of the best goalies in the NHL in the last season of the deal. He isn’t having the best season this year, but he was worth it for the first 7 years at least, and I still expect him to turn it around this year.
Ben Bishop made the Stanley Cup final with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2015, as well as the conference finals in 2016. He was a fantastic goaltender in his time with the Lightning, and it’s honestly a shame that he doesn’t have a Vezina Trophy to his name, he should at least have one later in 2019. When Vasilievskiy was ready, Bishop was shipped out by Tampa Bay. He entered free agency the following season after 6 seasons of proving himself to be one of the best netminders in the NHL. He was signed to a 6 Year, 29.5 million dollar deal by Dallas, with an AAV of 4.9 million. He’s shown the past 3 seasons in Dallas that he’s worth far more than he’s being paid. He was 30 at the time the contract was signed, so maybe 6 years was too much. But he’s shown at age 33 that he still has it.
John Gibson is in the 2nd season of an 8-year deal worth 51.2 million dollars and a 6.4 million AAV. He had 4 seasons as an elite netminder before this contract was signed, and he was only 25 at the time. The past two seasons his numbers haven’t looked as fantastic, but that’s more because of the talent in front of him rather than his play. If he keeps putting up a Save% lower than 0.910%, this contract may hurt them later down the road, and if it was a 4 or 5-year deal they probably wouldn’t have that problem.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has spent the past 5 seasons being fantastic for the Lightning, this season arguably being his best. In 2019, he signed an 8 year, 76 million dollar Extension with an AAV of 9.5 million dollars. He was 25 at the time, and he will be 32 at the end of the deal. This is an interesting one because we haven’t seen how the contract is going to play out, but Vasilevskiy is going to be elite for many more years, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him still posting around a 0.920 Save% in 6 years. But, you never know with netminders.
Connor Hellebuyck played great for the Jets for the first three seasons of his career. When he was 25, he signed a 6-year contract worth 37 million dollars and a 6.16 million dollar AAV. He just came off of a season with a 0.924 Save%, and he had the potential to be an elite goalie for many years to come. Hellebuyck was a risky contract, but you could tell in that 2017–2018 season that this contract was going to work out.
These goalies all have two things in common when it came to their big contracts. 3 or more seasons where they proved themselves. Matt Murray had 2 great seasons with 2 great playoffs. Jordan Binnington had 2 Great seasons with 1 great playoffs. These 5 were almost all near-elite for at least 3 seasons before their current contract was signed.
You might say that Carey Price fits under this. However, the 8-year deal was for what Carey Price was in 2015, not what he would be. He’s going to be 39 at the end of this contract, and he’s looking like he’s not a starting netminder just 3 years into the deal. The only player that I had mentioned that was signed above the age of 26 was Ben Bishop. He was 30 at the time of his contract, but he signed for less term and half of the AAV that price did.
So I’ve told you all of this but the question in the title is why this is happening. I don’t have a sure answer to this question. The GMs are the only ones that could tell you the answer for sure. I think I have a good guess.
It’s just the Stanley Cups. Those 5 goalies that I mentioned? Only two of them have a ring. Rask’s was as a backup in 2011, and Vasilievskiys was last season on one of the best rosters we’ve ever seen on paper.
When you see a rookie goaltender start for a Stanley Cup-winning team, you might look at them and see how they played at their peak and think that that’s how they will play. Teams don’t seem to look at how they’ve been playing recently, but how they were at their peak.
Do I think Murray or Binningtons performance was a fluke? No, I don’t. Do I think there’s a good chance that either of them will play at that level again? No, I don’t. Are they being paid like they’re going to be? Yes, they are. Are the Blues still going to be trying to contend in 3, 4 or 5 years? I think they will be.
With the flat cap over the next few seasons, you better hope that Binnington is playing up to par. If not, that’s a possible dead weight that doesn’t allow you to bring in someone else who can help you contend.
In the 2020 offseason, we saw a lot of goalies move around the NHL. Markstrom, Holtby, Murray, Talbot, Allen, Greiss, Dubnyk, and Lundqvist. All of them are on different teams to start this season. Pretty well all of them got new contracts.
Markstrom? 6 x 6 at age 31. Holtby? 4.3 x 2 at age 31. Greiss? 3.6 x 2 at age 35. I think in this era in the NHL, goalies about the age of 30 shouldn’t be signed to anything more than a 2 or 3-year contract. You don’t know when they can just fall off, I know Price did a lot sooner than anyone expected.
The same thing happens with skaters nowadays, some GMs pay for what they project the player to be or what they were at their peak. Not what they’re worth now or in the near future. I feel like that’s a lot more of a gamble with goalies than it is with skaters.
For example, Tristan Jarry was an All-Star last season. He posted a 0.921 Save% and was only 24. The Penguins knew it would be a risk to lock him up long term, so they signed him to a 3 year 3.5 million dollar AAV contract.
That’s what teams need to do when it even comes with their goaltending talent. If I was a Blues or Senators fan, I’d feel much more confident with a 3 year deal with something around a 4 to 6 million AAV. Bridge contracts are a lot more valuable than a lot of people think.
Freddy Anderson and Antti Raanta are players I’m looking at this offseason for this. With their expiring contracts and their age, teams may pay them too much for too long. They have to be careful signing these goaltenders, or they could end up in the same boat.